New Orleans Shootout: The High White Hat vs. The Bulge

vs.
Greetings! It’s been a while since our last update, and that’s because there hasn’t been much football to speak of. Before I get started with my predictions, I want to say that Charlie Weiss is a very good coach, and Brady Quinn is a phenomenal quarterback…….

……….the only thing is, Quinn wouldn’t start at LSU. I don’t want to re-hash everything that’s being said in the media, which is either how LSU is going to smack the shit out of Notre Dame, or how LSU will be caught off-gaurd, and Notre Dame is going to fight until the last whistle because Charlie Weiss is a good coach. Instead, I want to point out a few facts:

• The winner of this game is going to be the team that can score more points.
• Brady Quinn has had a monster year….but has only played 2 teams ranked in the top 50 pass defenses in the nation.
• LSU’s pass Defense is rated in the top 15, higher than anyone else Notre Dame has played.
• Darius Walker won’t be running the ball much, either.
• Notre Dame’s Defense is ranked around 50th.

Let’s look at how the two offenses have done against top ranked defenses, in rushing and passing respectively:

Notre Dame

Led by Brady Quinn, Notre Dame has a pretty stellar offense. I don’t think Darius Walker is too shabby as a running back, either. Here’s how their offense has performed this year.

Notre Dame has played two teams in the top 50 of passing defense. Know who they are? Ahh, Michigan and USC. Nope. Not even close. The two teams in the top 50 pass defense that Notre Dame has played are Stanford and Army. In both of those games, Quinn had a solid game, passing for just over 200 in both, and throwing 6 TD’s and 1 Interception. In both of those games, the opponent couldn’t score on Notre Dame’s defense (ranked in the middle of the pack: 50 for both pass and run defense), and in both of those games, Notre Dame was able to open up the passing attack with a solid running game. I don’t think they’ll be able to rush as well as they would like against the LSU front, but given Brady’s performance against top ranked defenses, I think he’ll do well enough, but the stat sheet won’t show it. I think he’ll put up around 180 yards, but definately not 200 or higher.

Notre Dame has faced 6 opponents in the top 50 in rush defense, which is probably the biggest reason why you haven’t heard Darius Walker’s name mentioned much this year. LSU opponents are averaging 95 yards a game, and I think that’s about how many yards Notre Dame will be able to rush the ball. Not bad, but not great either.

LSU

LSU has actually played some good teams this year, and they blow the fucking roof off when they play a poor opponent, and play reasonably well against upper echelon teams. The special teams errors and mistakes by Jamarcus Russell haven’t been seen in months, so I think we’re good there.

For all the Notre Dame fans out there, I hope he has a terrible game so that he comes back next year. It’s just that he won’t.

Jamarcus is a stud, there’s no question about that. It’s funny to think what he would do if he had Hawaii’s schedule, or if he played in the Big 10. That is neither here nor there, however, because he’s at LSU and that’s the way we like it. Notre Dame’s passing D is ranked at 50, which is not as good as the pass defense put up by Alabama, Auburn, or Arkansas. In those games, he averaged 253 yards a game, which sounds about right. I think he throws about 4 or 5 touchdowns in this contest if he stays in the whole game.

On the running side of the ball, LSU’s comittee has put up an average of 136 yards/game against teams with better running defenses such as: Florida, Mississippi State, Arizona, Arkansas, and Auburn. We all know that Miles likes to use the run to open up the pass, and I think we get an additional 2 touchdowns from our running backs.

Notre Dame is a very good football team. I think they’re about as good as Kentucky or possibly even Arkansas. Anything can happen. At the end of the day, I think Notre Dame just won’t be able to score as many points as LSU. The Bayou Bengals win this contest 44-17 as the Matt Flynn era begins.

Oh yeah, one more thing. I know Notre Dame is practicing at John Curtis highschool, where Joe McKnight plays, but it’s going to be hard for Notre Dame to recruit him when they get their ass kicked.

Which College Football Conference is best?

 Stole this one from tigerdroppings today, too hungover to write. Great article on whose conference is best.

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I got tired of the age-old “my conference is better than your conference” arguments, and the Sagarin rankings seem absurd to me, so I decided to compare conference records in OOC games. I don’t look at individual teams, I don’t look at intraconference games, just the sum of the entire conference’s OOC games.

Here’s how they are broken up:

VS BCS OOC: Games played against BCS conference teams from OTHER conferences.

VS NON-BCS 1A: Games against non-BCS conference 1A teams (WAC, MWC, etc., except Notre Dame)

VS ND: Versus Notre Dame, ND is a special case that doesn’t fit neatly into either of the above categories – they’re not in a conference, but they’re a cut above the average Non-BCS 1A, so they only show up in games against BCS top 25. For the record, ACC 0-2, Big Ten 1-3, Pac 10 1-2 vs ND.

VS 1AA: self explanatory. A loss here is embarassing.

VS BCS Top 25: Record vs BCS top 25 as of this week.

Top25 VS Top25: How the top 25 (BCS) in the conference fared against top 25 from other conferences

#teams with BCS OOC win: How many teams in the conference had at least one win against an OOC BCS conference team? This seemed like a good indication of the DEPTH of the conference vis-a-vis other conferences.

VS VS VS VS TOP25 #Teams
BCS NON-BCS 1AA BCS VS W/BCS
OOC OOC TOP25 TOP25 OOCWIN
ACC 4-10 17-6 8-1 1-6 0-1 3
Big East 11-7 15-1 6-0 0-4 0-0 7
Big Ten 6-4 20-3 5-2 2-6 2-0 4
Big 12 3-8 20-6 10-1 0-3 0-2 3
Pac 10 6-4 9-3 5-0 5-7 3-2 5
SEC 9-6 24-1 8-0 3-5 1-1 8

You can slice and dice these numbers a lot of ways. Here’s the things that seem pretty obvious (and objective) to me, ranking the conferences from worst to best:

The ACC sucks. 4-10 against BCS OOC, 17-6 against non-BCS 1A, only 3 of 12 teams with an OOC win against a BCS conference team.

Ditto for the Big 12 – they are clearly sub-par, it’s a toss-up which is worse, ACC or Big 12.

Big East is suprisingly credible. They beat some weak teams from the Big 10 and ACC, but still, their supposedly inferior teams managed quite a few wins (7 of 8 had OOC wins against BCS conf teams). Numbers are slightly inflated by only playing 7 conference games, allowing for 5 OOC games per team. I bump them down below Big 10 primarily due to only 4 games vs non-conf top 25 (and no wins) and none of the top teams played a top 25 OOC team. I think the Big 10 is better at the top, although the Big East may well be better top to bottom. Hard to say that with a straight face, but the numbers don’t lie. The Big Ten has some dreadful teams at the bottom.

Big 10 has a good record OOC at the top, but it is blemished by two losses to 1AA teams and only 4 of 11 teams winning OOC against another BCS conference. Good, but not the best, particularly after the first 4 teams or so.

PAC 10: Good record OOC, the 9-3 record vs non-BCS 1A is a little bit of a concern, but that includes some pretty good teams like Boise State. 5 teams of 10 have OOC BCS conf wins, and they played by far the most OOC top 25 teams (12 vs 8 for the SEC and the Big 10, which both have more teams in conference than PAC 10 does). Even taking out USC they played a tough schedule and had pretty good results.

SEC: Good OOC record vs BCS, excellent record vs non-BCS, and 8 teams (of 12) posted wins against OOC BCS teams. I rate them higher than Big 10 because of the 8 vs 4 teams had OOC wins vs BCS conference teams, and slightly higher than PAC 10 because removing any one team from the SEC results has minimal effect on the overall record, vs removing USC from the PAC 10, which drops the numbers quite a bit, so SEC gets the nod in terms of depth.

Whew.

There’s the FACTs, and then my take on the facts. Feel free to take the facts and draw your own conclusions.

Pig Roast

LSU wins another close one against Arkansas, despite the Hogs putting up some serious yardage against a banged-up LSU defense. Both teams had the form that we expected them to have at the beginning of the season. If you look back to our pre-season predictions, we said that the SEC West race would be between LSU and an under-rated Arkansas. Little did we know that it would end up being Auburn and Arkansas, but at any rate there are a few observations from Thursday’s game:

• Darren McFadden is a beast. He has tore up the LSU’s top-ranked defense for 180 yards, which is more than most teams got against LSU all year.D-Mac has averaged 137.5 yards against top 15 teams.
  He has averaged 6 yard/carry against unranked teams.To put these numbers in perspective, if he carried the ball the same number of times against ranked teams as he does against creampuffs, he would have about 2150 total yards. If he played for Ohio State and played only one tough game a year, he would beat Troy Smith for Heisman.
• Dwayne Bowe, who is a regular target of abuse on this website, was nearly perfect in the first half. He also dropped two passes in the end-zone in the second half. Hey Dwayne, at least you didn’t turn those drops into interceptions. Good luck in the CFL. Say hi to Ricky for us.
• Jamarcus Russell has improved dramatically over the season, and single-handedly won the game for LSU this week. We wish him luck in the pros, unless he screws up royally during bowl season, in which case, next year’s game between LSU and Arkansas will determine the Heisman winner.
• Welcome to the big time Trindon Holliday, who had his first big-game play when he returned a kickoff 92 yards for a touchdown.
• We’re not ready to kill Houston Nutt for this game. The reality is that Arkansas isn’t ready to be an SEC power just yet. They have a national champoin caliber offense, and a Big-East champion defense.

Here are the highlights from the game, enjoy.

Why is Colonel Reb Cryin? Ole Miss Pre-game Prediction

 ….Colonel Reb is crying because he’d rather be in the big east this year.

I woke up this morning and thought, do I really have to write a prediction or do analysis for this? You never know with college football, and so I decided I’d take a look at the statistics anyways.

It’s gonna get ugly.

Real ugly.

Some quick facts for you: Despite having two of the best linebackers in the conference (and for that matter, the country), Ole Miss has the second-most awful defense in the conference, sandwiched between Kentucky and Vandy.

I honestly think that LSU’s punter, Chris Jackson, doesn’t need to dress for this game.

Ole Miss is also the league’s most undisciplined team, leading the league in penalties.

I actually like Coach O, but there’s no way that his team beats the tigers.
When Ole Miss has the ball:

Brent Schaeffer has been atrocious this year. His completion %age is under .50, and he’s thrown more picks than TD’s. Coach O knows that Bo Pelini knows this. He also knows that Ben Jarvis Green Ellis (BJ GE from here on in) is the second best rusher in the SEC, and that Ole Miss has a monster O line.

Because of Brent Schaeffer’s suckage, LSU’s D will be able to stack the box and dominate BJGE. It will be good practice for next week’s contest against Arkansas.

When LSU Has the Ball.

Ole miss has one of the world’s scariest linebackers in Patrick Willis. This is going to be trouble for LSU’s running game.

Oh wait, LSU has no running game.

But LSU does have a passing game.

Look for Jamarcus Russel to torch the Ole Miss D for about 500 yards.

Also, look for James Welker to get his first TD pass.

Ole Miss Sucks. I’m done with it.

Russell for president!

LSU beats ‘Bama 28-14, but the real story last night was that the Tigers, who have been mistake-prone all year, held on to the ball with 0 turnovers against a ‘Bama squad that leads the SEC in turnovers. No need for the antacid after all. Russell was 18-21 (above 85%) for 201 yards and 3 TD’s.

I was surprised to see that LSU’s defense actually gave up 14 points. I know I predicted ‘Bama to score 22 points, but that thought was based on LSU turning over the ball 4-5 times to a ‘Bama defense that takes a lot of risks but creates a lot of turnovers.

In the words of my man Aaron Walters (talkshow host of the SEC Smack — check it out on iTunes), “BAMA SUCKS”.

In other news,  my predictions suck.

By the way, so does Auburn. How do you lose to Georgia? And so does Florida.

If we played the way we did tonight, we beat both Auburn and Florida, we’re undefeated, and ESPN stops talking about  Michigan – Ohio State.

Anti-Depressants or Antacid? Predictions for LSU vs. Bama

Before I start this week’s prediction, does anybody else think that Les Miles and Jimbo Fisher troll the tailgate area before our games and find two fat, slow ,half-retarded kids to dress up as Alley Broussard and Justin Vincent?

E-mail me at r_lebeaux@yahoo.com to let me know.

I’m very worried about this weekend’s game.

Yeah, I know ‘Bama has a fantastic record at Tiger Stadium this year. I know we have a more talented team. I know that nobody comes into our house and wins this year. But I am worried about this weekend’s game. Here are things I believe to be true:

- Bama sucks on offense.

- Bama is actually pretty good on Defense.

- LSU is great on offense and defense, with the exception of our running game.

- LSU likes to turn the ball over.

- Bama is 9th in the nation, and leads the SEC in turnover creation.

I think LSU jumps out to a solid 15-21 point lead by the end of the third quarter, but look for us to get a little too comfortable with the lead and cough the ball up a few times at the end with the Bama D scoring a touchdown.

I know my predictions suck, but here’s the final score: 27-22.

Tennessee straight outta Crompton, LSU wins a close one

Les Miles feels about 500 lb’s lighter without that gorilla on his back after LSU’s 28-24 victory over Phil Fulmer’s Tennessee team. What did we learn from this week’s game?

- Jonathan Crompton is a man that will be feared in the SEC for the next three years.

- Jamarcus Russell learned how to clean up his own mess.

- Les Miles woke up, finally changed the punt formation, and finally showed some fire.

- LSU’s running game is still terrible.

- Bo Pelini’s defense is not infallible.

Let’s take these points one by one, shall we?

Star of the game: Jonathan Crompton

There are going to be the Vol-pologists out there who will use their backup quarterback as the scapegoat for the game. Don’t. You lost by four with nine seconds left against a very good LSU team that also turned the ball over four times. Jonathan Crompton is a baller. As a die-hard LSU fan, I seldom acknowledge our opponent’s talent, but this kid scares me.

Thinking back to this season’s hype of highly touted freshman quarterbacks, believe that Colt McCoy deserves a highsman trophy, that Tim Tebow is the second coming of Danny Wuerffel in Florida, that Mitch Mustain is going to rock harder than Dave Mustain, and that Matthew Stafford is going to lead the dawgs back to the SEC championship.

Nobody has said anything about Crompton. This kid absolutely torched the LSU defense this weekend, forcing Tigers fans like myslef watching at bars and homes all around the country to change underwear not once but twice during the game.

Fat phil, time to make Ainge a kick holder. Crompton’s time has come.

Jamarcus Russell
Now, as for our Quarterbeast, Jamarcus Russell. I’m speechless. I defend him on message boards and sing his praises in cocktail parties. Loss at Auburn? Not his fault — look to Jimbo for that one. . Loss at Florida? Not your fault; the three INT’s in the box score were all mistakes by our WR’s. In this game, however, Jamarcus was both outstanding and awful. The first two interceptions were all you buddy. The third amazingly hit Bowe in the hands, and then into the arms of a Tennessee defender. Nonetheless, it almost cost us the game.

In the retrospect, however, the kid got knocked out of the game with a concussion in the first quarter, returns to action, and although he made some mistakes, he basically put the other 10 players in his backpack and carried the entire team to victory.

Early Doucet, Thank you for robbing Bowe of that catch attempt. He didn’t deserve it.

By the way, did anyone else notice how awful Flynn was when he was in the game?
LSU’s Running game?
If I were to tell you that a 260 lb player would be our leading rusher, would you guess it would have been Alley Broussard? Yeah, me too. I love you Alley, let’s return to form next year. As usual, Hester was pretty good, but the running game was non-existant AGAIN.

Bo Knows Defense

Did anyone else see how disappointed Bo Pelini was after the game? It’s like somebody killed his dog after LSU gave up 24 points. Our offense didn’t help him with the 4 turnovers. I really hope he stays with us for another year or two.

Final Thoughts

It’s satisfying enough to finally win against a top 10 team, and I’m really glad that we are 7-2 right now. For those that criticize our schedule, we are also 3-2 against the top 1/2 of the league, which isn’t so bad. To put things in perspective of the top 1/2 of the league:

1. Ohio State is 6-0 15 pts
2. Michigan is 6-0 12 pts
3. Texas is 5-1 11 pts

4. Florida is 5-1 10 pts

5. Cal is 5-1 10 pts

6. Rutgers is 5-0 10 pts
7. USC is 4-1 8 pts
8. Louisville is 4-0 8 pts

9. LSU is 3-2 7 pts

10. Oregon is 3-1 7 pts

11. Notre Dame is 5-1 11 pts
12. Tennessee is 2-2 8 pts.

13. Arkansas is 2-1 7 pts

14. Auburn is 5-1 10 pts
15. Boise State is 3-0 6 pts

16. Wisconsin is 2-1 5 pts

17. Tennessee is 2-2 5 pts

18. West Virginia is 1-1 3 pts
* Rules:

5 points win over a top 10 team
2 Points win over top 60 team

1 point Loss to top 10 team

Cannot be ranked higher than a team you’ve lost to.

If there are too many close games, reserve the right to rank lower.

Halfway through the SEC Season….

We’ve just passed the halfway point of the SEC football season, and so now that the tigers have played some tough opponents and some not-so-tough opponents, it is time to reflect on the team’s performance.

Overall Play This Season: B

“Other than that Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?”

With the exception of special teams this year, we have had a great season. We have annhialated every team that we were supposed to beat, and suffered a bad loss to Auburn thanks to some shitty officiating, and another bad loss to Florida, thanks to a very “special” special teams play that has Brad Peveto driving the short bus and Chevis Jackson riding in the front seat. As mentioned in an earlier article, if you look at the Florida game, using statistics only used from that game, LSU would have won that one if you take out Jamarcus Russell’s fumbled snap at the goal line and Chevis Jackson’s muffed punts.

I know winning and losing ARE everything in college football, but IF the coaching staff makes a few corrections during the two losses (to teams ranked higher than LSU, I might add), we are undefeated right now, ruining ESPN’s wet dream of having meaningful matchups with BOTH the Ohio State – Michigan and the Louisville – West Virginia.

So far the season hasn’t been a total disaster.

Coaching: B+*

Les ain’t THAT bad. Seriously, going 6-2 without a running game and a brand-new defense is pretty good. Our passing game has been spectacular, and our defense is the best in the nation. 6-2 — that’s not even in the “waking up next to a fat girl” territory (see Georgia).

The only criticisms I have are of Brad Peveto’s special teams and Jimbo’s conservative playcalling style.

Brad, seriously, dust off the old punt formation and put your current one on ebay with no minimum bid. Chris Jackson, I feel for you. You are punting the ball just as well as you did last year — well almost as well, a difference of -1.5 yards (39.3 per punt this year vs. 40.8 last year).
Also, Chevis Jackson couldn’t return a rental movie much less a punt. He looks like he is trying to field a hand grenade out there.

Would you let this man return a punt?
The switch to Craig Davis should have happened after the Arizona game when he fumbled.

Jimbo, it’s time to open up the offense. I know you feel like the fat girl on prom night now that Justin Vincent just doesn’t care, and Alley Broussard gained weight, but ditch the running game. Let’s have some fun.

* Overall coaching – special teams. Fire Peveto now.

Quarterbacks: A*

Jamarcus Russell is a quarterbeast. Simply the best QB we’ve had in a long time. He is making decent decisions for a college kid and can throw the ball farther than anybody in all of football.

What about the two losses? He would have gotten an A+ if he threw a jump ball on the last play of the Auburn game, and the recievers were at fault for his interceptions in the Florida game.

Hey Matt: I love you too — you’re the next Tom Brady. Try not to throw an INT on your first series.

Perrilloux: I know you want more playing time. I love you. Try not to trip over the center on your first snap, keep your chin up, and you’ll be our man for the next three years.

Running Backs: D

Why doesn’t Justin Vincent care about my happiness? If I wanted Alley Broussard to gain weight I would have married him.

Simply awful. I cringe every time I see a handoff. The only reason why our running backs didn’t score an F is because of Jacob Hester, who is the only back who stepped up to play, but continually has this look on his face that the high school kid had in “The Girl Next door” because he can’t believe he’s getting all the carries.

Jacob Hester: You da man. Keep on trucking. Enjoy the spotlight.
Justin Vincent: I know boozing and women are fun and all. Before you uncork that bottle of Grey Goose in your locker after practice today, you may want to call your buddy Maurice Clarett and find out what awaits you next year if you continue down this path. Have fun in the CFL.

Alley Broussard: Every time I think of this guy I keep thinking of Mugato in Zoolander: “Lose 10 pounds right now or get out of my face!”. Alley was a beast against Fresno state. That phrase would have been a lot cooler last year when USC (ESPN’s “Best Team EVER) needed a miracle against them to win the game.

Seriously dude. You are making progress. Back away from the krispy kremes.

Wide Recievers: B-

This group has largeley benefitted from having Jamarcus Russell at QB. Don’t think the statistics would be this good if we still had Matt Mauch or Marcus Randall. Sigh. These guys helped cost us the game tipping the balls into the hands of the Florida secondary.

Dwayne Bowe: You almost have the same receiving stats as you for the entire 2005 season. Seriously, you are catching everything that comes your way. Good job.

Craig Davis: You are also having a career year. Actually, your numbers this year have already passed last years numbers. Great job. If it weren’t for the tipped balls into the defenders hands against Florida, you’d be so much hotter.

Early Doucet: You have the second best name in college football, and you also have eclipsed last years numbers. That being said, forgiveness is a difficult thing, and I’m still confused about our relationship. The fumbled punt into the end zone against Florida still hurts, but you did have two clutch catches in huge spots last year to help us win at Alabama and Arizona State. Make up for it against the Vols, please?

Offensive Line: C+

Does anyone really care about offensive line stats? I see nothing glaring, JR seems to have enough time to throw the ball, but I wish our running backs had larger holes to run through. The only thing I have to go on is that Jacob Hester seems to be getting the same average yards per carry that he had his last two years, so it can’t be all your fault.

Defensive Line: A+

This unit is doing really well for us. Let’s face it, Florida put up 23 points against us becuase we kept giving them extremely short fields to work with. I’d like to see more sacks put up by Chase Pittman.

Chase Pittman: 4.5 Sacks, 5.5 TFL, 1 Interception. None of them against Florida or Auburn. Let’s see you do this against Tennessee.

Glenn Dorsey: 4 Sacks, 6 TFL. You are a beast. 50% of this production is against Auburn. Hey Les, let’s play this guy ONLY against ranked opponents.

Charles Alexander: 2 Sacks. Go to Emeril’s and Kick it up a notch bro, we expect more.

Ricky Jean-Francois: It’s a good thing Repete Smith isn’t playing this year, because You have the best name in college football. Nobody thought at the start of the season that RJF would have more tackles than Chase Pittman, but it may take a while to grow a sack.

Linebackers: A+

Who would have thought our linebacking corps would have done so well. These guys have played with heart and intensity. Maybe we should rotate Beckwith in with Hester to shore up the running game.

Darry Beckwith: Leads the team with 51 tackles. I didn’t even know your name before the start of the season. Definately wins the positive surprise of the season. Should shave head in mohawk and speak only like Mr. T.

Ali Highsmith: 34 Tackles, but would like to see more out of him in big games. Nice forced fumble against Tulane.

Jacob Cutera: I would never start this guy in NCAA 2007. He’s terrible in the game, but good in real-life. Not bad considering he’s a freshman.

Defensive Backs: A

If I were to tell you in August that the season would start off with one of our DB’s returning two int’s for TD’s in the first two games, would you guess it was Laron Landry? Yeah, me too. Seeing Jonathan Zenon do it was like watching the Detroit Tigers beat the Yankees. I’d like to see much more turnover production against tough opponents from this squad.

Jonathan Zenon: Let’s see some production against Tennessee like we saw against ULL and Arizona.

Laron Landry: 2nd on the team in Tackles, with 41. Is he that good or our front seven that bad?
Craig Steltz: Came up huge against Auburn with a nice INT.

Chevis Jackson: Great interception against Florida.
Special Teams: D-

Two items kept this unit from getting a D:

1) Buster Davis is returning punts.

2) Colt David hasn’t really made any huge mistakes.

Other than these two kids, who have played well, the rest of the unit is a disaster. LSU is winning games this year in spite of special teams whereas last year they were winning games because of them, pinnig them deep and causing turnovers. It shouldn’t take much to turn this unit around. But if I ever see Chevis Jackson deep to return again, I may just stab my genitals repeatedly with an ice pick.