Payback time: LSU vs. Auburn preview

Sorry I haven’t written an update about Kentucky. I think Jana said it best during the preview when she said that the LSU receivers need to start catching the fucking ball. That’s why we lost to Kentucky. That and stupid penalties.

In other news…….

Les Miles reported today that Early Doucet is practicing at 100% and that we should be seeing him a lot during the Auburn game. This is good news, seeing as how he has been our best receiver the past 2 years, in my opinion. He’s not as big as Dwayne Bowe, or as fast as Craig Davis, but he catches everything in sight, is extremely agile, and deceptively quick. He’s a game changer. For those of you who haven’t noticed, our offense has been average since he left, and he will bring a spark to this Tiger team, opening up the passing and running lanes as a decoy, and is worth about 2 TD’s in this game, unless we blow the doors off of Auburn early, in which case Miles will save him to keep him healthy.

. …but that’s not likely to happen against Auburn, as they have a better defense than we will have faced all year. Without further audieu, your keys to the game:

Krista Says: Our defense is very, very good at defending the pass, and defending the run. We shut down Darren McFadden last week. We’re a lunchpail defense, and while we don’t allow many points or yards, we also don’t force many turnovers.

On special teams, our punting is very solid, and makes up for our defense’s lack of flair.

On offense, we’ve got to rock out with our cox out, because we can’t run the ball for shit. If we can’t run the ball on South Florida, it’s not like we’re going to do much better against Dorsey & Co.

Hilary Says: True, we haven’t faced a defense like Auburn’s, and it’s not like they’re schedule has been terrible, but we’ve got the advantage on defense. Check it out: they’ve got no running game. This is going to allow our defense to blitz the bejesus out of Cox, and our pass defense to shine. We lead the league in turnover margin, which should give our offense good field position.

On special teams, it looks like Chad Jones is going to be returning punts. But let’s be honest, it’s not like our return game or our punting game has been lighting it up this year. If Auburn can get 2 or 3 first downs on each possession without turning it over, we could be in trouble because we’ll have a much longer field to score than they will.

Offense baby. Offense. Y’all suck for criticizing my boy Matt Flynn after last week’s game. Sure, he made a few mistakes, but the receivers made many more. Early Doucet’s return should cure that. He’ll actually catch the ball this week, and should open up the passing lanes for the other receivers. I actually have a theory about Brandon Lafell — he seems to have more confidence with Early around and seems to catch the ball better. I hope I’m right about this. If not, we should see a little more of Terrence Tolliver who seems to be getting better every week. Ryan Perrilloux will probably pass the ball once or twice, but I believe the coaching staff is bringing him along slowly and allowing him to grow into the system. Sure, he tore it up against Middle Tennessee State, but c’mon folks, Middle Tennessee isn’t a top ranked SEC defense like Auburn or Florida. Hell, he even missed two wide open receivers against Tulane, costing our team 14 points.

We’re probably going to need to mix it up a little bit with the running backs. Hester’s good and reliable, but it’s not like those Auburn punks are good at forcing turnovers. Besides, he looked a little shook up after a TD in overtime last week. I think we’ll see more of Charles Scott and Keiland Williams this weekend. They will look more impressive than they have against other good defenses because Early Doucet will force Will Muschamp to game plan around him, allowing our speed rushers to gain more yardage.

Prediction: Well, after hearing from our two ladies on their respective teams, I think Auburn must play conservative, with short and precise passing, and playing a field position game in order for them to win. If they don’t, LSU will be able to control the tempo of the game and it could be over by halftime.

For LSU to win, we need to pressure Cox, and defend the passing game. They haven’t been able to run the ball all year, and I don’t anticipate this trend to change against our front 7.

In the end, I believe LSU will win this game, 21-14. Despite Early’s return, Auburn has a great defense, and LSU has gotten pounded in hard hitting games in the last 2 weeks against Florida and Kentucky. Our running backs and QB should be fresh, and Early will add some new legs to the receiving corps, but I expect our lines to be tired out and a little bruised from the past few weeks. That being said, if we fire on all cylinders, and Auburn comes out flat (entirely possible for a night game in TS), we could win this game 47-0. I say could because I honestly believe we win this game 21-14.

Around the league:

Ole Miss got robbed by Nick Saban and his referees last week. That call on the Ole Miss receiver running out of bounds was atrocious. That’s the second time that ‘Bama got a call in order to win the game. In a related story, does anybody notice that Nick Saban has the same record as Mike Shula this time last season?

There’s rumors of Tommy Tubberville leaving Auburn to go to Texas A&M. I don’t believe ’em. Why would he leave Auburn, and why would A&M want another coach from Alabama?

Rutgers upset South Florida last night. It was a good game, but sloppy sloppy sloppy on defense. I really don’t think the Big East teams can hack it against the Pac 10 or the SEC, the two best conferences this year in my opinion. Jim Leavitt thinks he’s still got an outside chance at the BCS championship. That guy’s a fighter, but it ain’t gonna happen.

Boston College and Ohio State ranked higher than LSU, really? C’mon folks, they haven’t played anyone in the top 50. After Auburn we’ll have played 5 of our games against teams in the top 50.

The BCS picture has a long way to go before any definitive picture is made.

Looks like Callahan is going to get canned at Nebraska. What the fuck? Didn’t he restore Nebraska to glory last year by bringing them to the big 12 championship game? Another example of irrational acts by universities and boosters in the NCAA.

No updates on the USC scandal yet. I wonder what’s going on there.

Joe McKnight finally got in the game, and looked pretty solid averaging something like 7 yards a carry. The pro-McKnight case: He’s only a freshman, and USC’s entire offensive line is in shambles. The anti-McKnight case: All his carries have come against shitty teams. We won’t be able to make a definitive ruling on whether or not he’s the best HS prospect of all time until he graduates, so chill out people.

Mark “dirty” Sanchez will start in replace of Booty. Dirty Sanchez, Booty, Mustain, it’s just too easy with SC’s QB’s.

Boston College and Arizona State are idle this week. If LSU and Ohio State both win, we could be ranked #1 by the computers.

How many players are going to leave Notre Dame? Looks like Charlie Weiss is really screwing it up over there, taking a huge steaming shit on the program after Willingham was unfairly forced out.

Games to pay attention to and why:

Tennessee vs. Alabama: Watch the Bama meltdown if Fulmer wins – if he does, the SEC East becomes a very interesting race.

Arkansas vs. Ole Miss: The battle of the hotseat, although I think Nutt probably gets canned at the end of the season (perhaps unfair — got screwed by Mrs. Mustain and a news reporter), and Orgeron keeps his job at the end of the season no matter what. I’m kind of pulling for Ole Miss, even though I hate them when they play us.

Florida vs. Kentucky: Either team winning increases our SOS. I’d like to see Woodson do well, and Tebow cry. Go cats!

Michigan State vs. Ohio State: Tressell decides to play I-A ball finally.

Mississippi State vs. West Virginia: A win for croom increases our SOS, and wins him an extension as well. He is doing good things at Mississippi State.

Southern Cal vs. Notre Dame: Another loss for Charlie Weiss is a good day for us. It will be interesting to see how a decimated Southern Cal O line and a backup QB and third string / fourth string RB do against a terrible Notre Dame team. Honesetly, if I were to tell you that Mcknight and Sanchez were going to play against Notre Dame at the beginning of the season, you’d say….yeah, when it’s 50-0 with 2 minutes to go in the 4th quarter, right?

Michigan vs. Illinios: C’mon Carr — we’re rooting for you to keep the maize and blue hands off miles.

Penn State vs. Indiana: Just kidding, but why is this game on TV?

I’m out……

Rating the 2004 recruiting Class based on performance, not stars and 40 times. All SEC coaches should go on the Fulmer diet.

Last month, Dennis Dodd wrote an article on Joe McKnight documenting the problem the young man has encountered ever since he committed to USC in February. The article had one very interesting tidbit: Joe and his family always wanted him to leave Louisiana, and never actually intended for him to go to LSU. While Dodd criticized LSU fans for the their criticism of McKnight, his article’s glaring omission that young Joe strung along LSU, Ole Miss, and Alabama during the entire recruiting process, presumably to enjoy his status in the limelight and take any benefits that may come his way during the recruiting process.

 

Hey, just because you’re Joe-Fucking-McKnight doesn’t mean that you won’t pay the consequences for acting like a prima donna. Welcome to the real world, where honesty usually means less reward while dishonesty, when discovered, means severe social scorn.

 

Between the McKnight saga and reading message board posters rant and rave about PJ Smith’s moves, reasons why Sam McGuffie will ultimately fail, or whether or not Dayne Christ is ready for prime-time, I wonder we (myself included) college football fans care so much what is in some 18 year old kid’s head. As fans, we go nuts debating each other of a 4 or 5 star recruit, but what if that same recruit’s training tactics includes armed burglary and never makes the squad?

 

Dorian Capers – 4 star recruit that “lifted too much” – too many goods that weren’t his, that is. Say goodbye to your scholarship son.

To be sure, recruiting is an integral part of a college football program’s success (I’m looking at you, UCONN), but why should we judge a coach’s recruiting prowess on the basis of an arbitrary star rating or a 40 time, when all we need to do is look at today’s talent and measure it against how the kid was ranked coming out of high school? From now on, I will no longer devote time and discussion to current recruiting; instead, it’s time to look back and rank the class of 2004 to see which coaches came out on top. It’s against my best interests to do so, since that would mean that I would have to give Saban some props, but I really do think you need to wait a few years to judge a recruiting class. The most productive Defensive Tackle (Jamaal Anderson), Defensive Back (Jon Haefney) , Wide Receiver (Sidney Rice) and Running Back (Rafael Little) for the class of 2004 are all 3 stars — except for the most productive Defensive tackle, who was a 2 star. Note that Phil Fulmer was after every single one of these kids, which is why Phil gets our golden star award for recruiting.

Fulmer can out-recruit, and outfox the average donut.

 

Here’s why we need to judge recruiting classes based on performance:

1. It takes a while for a kid to mature to the college level. If a 5 star recruit hasn’t made any impact by the end of his junior or redshirt sophmore season, he probably isn’t as good as advertised. This also allows for teams that are in a reloading phase to be judged equally.
2. We will be able to judge a coach based on real impact his recruits make, instead of some ranking service that has no idea if the recruit will make the grades, get out of shape, change sports, or go to prison. A truly good recruiter needs to have a feel for these things overall. It’s okay to take a risk once in a while, but not all the time.

 

For the purposes of this site’s ranking, class members will be judged on their on the field production vs. the top recruit for that position in their class in the SEC. We included our Les Miles 2004 Okie State Cowboys recruiting class just for shits and giggles. Each player is assigned a point value similar to Yahoo! Fantasy football on offense (yards, touchdowns) and defense (tackles, turnovers). So if the top wide receiver got 1000 points, and the second-best got 950 points, the top wide receiver would get a 10 and the 2nd best would get a 9.5.

 

Offensive linemen get points just for games played, so the offensive lineman with the most games played gets the most points.

 

Here are the SEC Standings for 2004:

Rank Rivals  Coach  School  Points
1 4 Phil Fulmer Tennessee 76.74783637
2 1 Nick Saban LSU  57.33278849
3 7 Houston Nutt Arkansas 56.74357949
4 10 Les Miles Okie State 53.96502279
5 13 Bobby Johnson Vanderbilt 50.30394309
6 5 Mike Shula Alabama  49.33438585
7 2 Mark Richt Georgia  49.212921
8 3 Ron Zook Florida  46.73287342
9 11 Rich Brooks Kentucky 39.59715198
10 9 Steve Spurrier USC  35.13913419
11 6 Tommy TubervilleAuburn  31.88745247
12 14 Jackie Sherrill Miss State 27.95517214
13 8 David Cutcliffe Ole Miss 27.89125118
 

 Three things stand out right away:

1.  Phil Fulmer has an amazing recruiting staff. He is almost 20 points ahead of Nick Saban. It may not seem entirely fair since Nick left LSU, but Les Miles has done a great job with the talent so far.
2. Houston Nutt ain’t so bad after all, and this doesn’t include the springdale debacle that was his 2006 recruiting class.
3. Tuberville should not be on the panel of “america’s got talent”. 

 

Amazingly enough, Bobby Johnson has gotten some good mileage out of his recruits, and Les Miles’ Okie State Cowboys didn’t do so bad after he left. The point remains the same: until a recruit proves he can be the best of his class on the college level, he’s just a statistic from high school.

 

 

Mississippi State improves on the Sly

We’re hunting Orgerons and Sabans. 

It may sound simple, but the key to recruiting is filling voids left by players leaving, and upgrading positions where you lack talent.

Mississippi state has lacked a lot of talent in recent years.  With an overall record of 9-25. Before jumping all over him, consider this: Mississippi State was 8-27 for the three seasons before he was hired. Consider that He has to play Auburn and LSU year in and year out. Consider that last year, he also had to play West Virginia and Arkansas, two top 5 teams. He had to play against 8 bowl teams last year. It’s a tough job, and he is the lowest paid coach in the SEC.

The football season and program lives and dies with the recruits. Without further Delay, here is what Sly did to make his team better in 2007:

Quarterback: Matt Mauck proved that you don’t need to be a great quarterback to win championships. Watching Mississippi State over the past few years, they just need a Quarterback. Anyone. They should call the MS State depth chart Mike Henig and the two stars, because they all suck. Sly improves on this position and signs a 3 star in Wesley Carrol, and 2 two stars in Chris Relf and Josh Ridell.
That brings the Mississippi state QB count to 7. Surely the competition will breed a starter, won’t it? Sly improves with the level of talent here. We give him a B+ because he is improving the program. You can’t turn Mississippi State into Florida overnight, but you do have to get better every year.

Wesley Carrol, 3 Star, top 30 QB. He’s an accurate passer who only threw 3 interceptions in his high school career. Also won the Florida 5A championship. He’s not going to hurt the team, but just won’t be a #1 draft pick. He’s a top 30 QB. How bad can he be?

Tailback: While you can win championships with mediochrity at QB, you really do need to have some horses at Running Back. Brandon Thorton and Arnil Stallworth are both terrible as well, although we think Anthony Dixon will be a beast. How did Sly repay bulldog fans?

Robert Elliot, 4 star, #11 RB. A back with good size and vision, although he doesn’t have that breakaway speed you look for.
Ethan Stockett, 2 Star. Hell, he’s no better and no worse than the majority of backs for State.

Grade: A. Huge upgrade in the RB position.

Wide Receiver: Part of Mississipi state’s passing problem is the Quarterback, but he’s going to need someone to throw to. 3 out of 4 starters are graduating this year. Even if all 4 were freshmen, they sucked last year and Sly needed a big talent upgrade regardless. Sly got 4 replacements, 3 of which are rated higher coming out of high school than the useless wrenches that graduated.

Co-Eric Riley, 4 Star, #13 WR. Juco kid, can step in right away and play.
Oneal Wilder 2 Star. Great hands. At 6-5 this kid is a monster.
Antwon Dixon, 3 Star. Top 100. Can play either WR or DB.
Marcus Green, 3 Star. Top 70. Can play either WR, TE, or DB.

Grade A. Sly got both numbers and improvement at this position.
TE
Addison Guy, 2 Star. 250 Lbs. Can you say Blocking Tight End? I can.
LB, Maurice Crustison, 2 Star. Receiving TE/LB/RB.
Marcus Green. Top 70 receiver, 215 lbs.

Grade D+. None of the three are a full time tight end. I guess it doesn’t matter much because this is going to be a running team this year.

Offensive GPA: 3.62, B+. Sly’s team is improving. He could have worked harder at TE.

Defensive Line:
Lots of guys that actually play are graduating on Sly’s squad, But he has a relatively strong crop of up and comers including Quinton Wesley, top 20 DE 2005, Rodney Prince, top 40 DE 2005, Reggie Odom, top 70 DE 2005, Louis Ellis, top 10 DE 2006. In order to score well, Sly just needs to land a few.

Jazzmen Guy, 4 star, #11 DE. Good size and speed.
Lamarcus Williams, 3 star, Top 50 DT.
Jimmie Holmes, 3 Star, Juco that needs more size.
Jessie Bowman, 4 Star, 335 lb Juco Load.

Grade A. An upgrade in talent for Sly again.

Defensive Backfield: Only two underclassmen on Sly’s depth chart here, although this is an area where Sly has been steadily improving over the past few years with talent like Anthony Summers, and Derek Pegues, both 4 star recruits from last year. In order to score well, Sly only needs to get some 3 star talent to smoke out the less talented guys that should be playing in the Big East. Interesting to note that Sly scored two Juco recruits that could possibly step right in and play.

Wade Bonner 3 star top 50 CB
Antwon Dixon 3 Star, Top 50 S
Mike Hunt 3 Star top 50 S
Chris Nance, 2 star
Jasper O’Quinn, 2 Star
Zach Smith, 2 star
Grade B

Defensive GPA: 3.5, B+

Overall Recruiting Score: 3.557, B+.

Overall, Sly did really well this year, earning the second spot in the SEC West. These results are based on the talent that a school brings in vs. the talent that they are capable of bringing in. The question is not how many 5 star recruits a coach can bring in, rather, did they improve this year over last year? Did they replace the holes in their depth chart from graduation and lack of talent? Programs are not built overnight. It’s easy to slam Sly because he has gone 9-25 in 3 seasons, but consider this: Some of those games aren’t winnable. He has to play LSU and Auburn every year. Arkansas had a hell of a season last year, and they had to play West Virginia as well. Last Season he had to play 4 top 10 teams, which are games that you aren’t supposed to win. Taking out those games, there were 8 “winnable” games in his schedule last year, and he went 3-5. Improving the talent level year over year can steadily turn that into 5-3, and then 8-0 if it’s done right. Out of the games he lost last year, this moderate improvement could have won Tulane (lost by 3 points), an improvement could have prevented Syvelle Newton’s 54 yard TD pass and won the game with South Carolina, Could have won the game against Georgia (21-17 after 3 quarters), Could have won the game against Kentucky (Henig threw 2 picks they lost by 3), and could have won the game against Ole Miss.

Even if talent only turns around half of those games, We’re talking about a 6-6 season and a Bowl and a contract extension for Sly. Looking ahead to next season’s schedule, the winnable games are: Tulane, Jacksonville State, UAB, Alabama, and Mississippi. The not-so-winnable games against LSU, Arkansas, West Virginia, Tennessee, Kentucky, and South Carolina. It’s a shame that a coach that is doing so well in Recruiting, and building a team from nothing is a dead duck. With OOC scheduling with another bowl-bound SEC team (you only need 2 games out of your division), and West Virginia, you have to believe that the Mississippi State administration hates sly croom. If Sly wins out the winnable games, and they replace West Virginia and one of the SEC teams with Colorado, Michigan State, Purdue, Vanderbilt, Syracuse, or Illinois, we’re talking about a 7-5 season instead of 5-7. I’m done ranting. Here is the SEC west scorecard.

Les Miles 4.0
Sylvester Croom: 3.557
Houston Dale Nutt: 3.3
Tommy Tuberville: 3.17
O: 2.79
Nick Saban: 2.25

Ole Miss Rebellious Recruiting Habits

Updated 3/12/2007 5:12 AM

Clay reminded me that Jevan Snead transferred from Tejas. My apologies to Coach O.

Ole Miss is a fun team to watch, and I would imagine, a fun place to play as well. Hot women, the grove, and coach O. Who wouldn’t want to go there? I know some of you are saying, hot women – check, the grove – check, Coach O? Wait a second.

Hot women, tailgaiting at the grove, hummers, shit this place is just like USC!

If you look past his accent, hummer commercials, and all the other stuff people mock coach O for, he’s knows that he’s coaching in the bottom tier of the SEC, and he has fun with it with some pretty imaginative play calling. Like onside kicks to start the half, and trick plays.

I am having such a hard time grading his recruiting performance because it’s got to be a trick play. Judging from the criteria we usually use here, recruiting for positions you need (starters graduating this year or next, lack of depth at a position), Coach O has failed miserably.

That doesn’t mean that he won’t pull something out of his ass to come close to beating some good teams.

Quarterbacks: Brent Schaeffuh will be a senior this year, and so will his backup. Ole Miss had 4 freshman quarterbacks on their roster, and out of that only one, Billy Tapp, even rated with the recruiting services. Colonel Reb Thanks god he got Jevan Snead, the #3 QB from 2006.

Jevan Snead, fully satiated after eating Billy Tapp’s Lunch.

Grade: A. Transfers count as recruiting right? I apologize from

Tailbacks: BJGE and Bruce Hall graduate after the 2007 season, Bruce Hall will graduate after the 2008 season, leaving only Cordera Eason and Mico McSwain, both of which are pretty good backs. Still, they need one more to add to their arsenal.

Coach O got a commitment from ATH Johnny Brown who is a RB/CB. He’s 190 lbs and runs a 4.4 40, and since he rushed for almost 2000 yards his Junior year, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him taking some snaps on the offensive side of the ball.

Grade: B- Playing both sides of the ball is going to make him tired.

Wide Receiver: Needed some serious improvement this year. Mike Wallace, Marshay Green, and Michael Hicks are okay, but serious improvement was needed.

O signed two burners (and to 40 wideouts) in Roderick Davis and Lionel Breaux, and a Colston-sized wideout in AJ Jackson.

Grade: B+ I expect all three to see playing time this year.

The O line is looking pretty solid for next two years, so it didn’t need much improvement.

Offensive GPA: 3.58, O scores a B+.

On Defense, Ole Miss is rediculously young on the D Line, as well as Linebacker. It’s in the defensive backfield where they are graduating 3 starters. Ole Miss has 10 DBs that are either going to be sophmores or juniors, and none of which are good enough to go pro. Still they have a lack of depth with the safetys, but they did get:

Ashlee Palmer, straight outta compton, this kid is 225 lbs and runs a 4.45. Since they also signed 6 DB’s I’ll give them a C.

Defensive GPA 2.0

Total GPA: 2.79. O works his way up to a C+. Remember: It’s all about the talent you recruit that you actually need. Ole miss did get some top 20 players at their position in Rishaw Johnson (OL), Chris Strong (DL), Ted Laurant (DL), and Anthony Fein (LB). But these players won’t do any good on the bench, and even if they do make the playing field in their freshman year, they won’t change the fact that Ben Jarvis Green Ellis is graduating. Still, not as bad a job as originally thought.  The same rule applies to schools like USC: It’s absolutely fantastic that they were able to recruit 8 4-5 star running backs in the last two years, but at most 3 will get significant playing time within their careers at SC, unless they can pass or tackle.

Nick Saban remains in the basement with Coach O’s ranking this week, but it may not be for long: Sly Croom is up next week.

Les Miles 4.0
Houston Dale Nutt: 3.3
Tommy Tuberville: 3.17
O: 2.79
Nick Saban: 2.25

Auburn, recruiting state champs 2007!

Tommy Tuberville: proud owner of the 2007 Crimson tide. 

Auburn has won the iron bowl forever. And if this recruiting class is any indication, they will win the iron bowl for the next four years as well. Tubby is going to make life very difficult in the SEC for years to come if he keeps recruiting like this.

In our eyes, Auburn needed to get a running back, some help on the offensive line, a lot of help on the defensive line, and a few DB’s. After looking at Auburn’s commit list, all we can say is “fuck”. Good luck winning any games at Jordan-Hare in the forseeable future. Here’s Tubby’s grocery list for 2007:

Tailback: Enrique Davis, #3 running back in the country (4 star) runs a 4.39 40. Shhhhiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiit.

Enrique Davis, 212 LBs of hot, nasty, bad-ass speed that would make Eleanor Roosevelt jealous. 

Fullback: John Douglas, #5 FB in the country.

Running backs grade: B. Would have been higher if Tubby had some more recruits.

O Line: This is going to take a while:

Jared Cooper, 3 star
Kyle Coulahan, 3 Star, #36 OT
Brandon Earl, 2 Star
Nick Fairly, 3 Star Top 30 OG
Jermaine Johnson, 3 Star
Chaz Ramsey, 4 Star, top 15 OG
Lee Ziemba, 4 Star, #4 OT.
Ryan Pugh, 4 Star, #3 Center

O lineman Grade: A. The amount of O linemen Tubby recruited this year is going to push the level of competition upward.

Kicker: Charles Byrum, #2 Kicker, 3 star. Grade: A

Offensive GPA: 3.6 B+

Defense:

D Line

Wilfred Journet 3 star
Antoine Carter 3 Star #34 DE
AJ Greene 3 Star top 50 DE
Tim Lamb 3 Star top 50 DT.

D Line Grade: C+. Auburn fans would like to see more talent here, but these guys will have some years to mature and be solid SEC D linemen.

Defensive Backs:

Ryan Williams, 3 star top 30 CB
Johnnie Lee Dixon, 4 Star, top 30 ATH
Michael McNeil 4 Star, #8 Safety
Mike Slade 3 Star, top 40 Safety.

Defensive backs grade: B

Defensive GPA: 2.75, C+.

Overall GPA, 3.17. Tubby done good this year. He should be shitting on Nick Saban’s chest for the forseeable future. He didn’t out-recruit Houston Nutt but he didn’t have to. He’s already got the talent, and he did well enough to get a good recruiting score (big fellas on the offensive and defensive side of the ball). Here’s how the SEC West coaching honor roll goes:

Les Miles 4.0
Houston Dale Nutt: 3.3
Tommy Tuberville: 3.17
Nick Saban: 2.25

Fight on Joe!

RJ Jackson is the happiest man in america right now.

I hope Joe McKnight can punt.

Pete Carroll needed another running back like Phil Fulmer needed to eat another doughnut. In order to see the field next year, Joe McKnight is going to have to fight his way through the other 8 4-5 star running backs USC recruited in the last two classes. This isn’t counting the juniors and seniors at the running back position. That’s what kills me about recruiting hype: with all the great talent USC signed this year, it won’t help them on the field very much because they didn’t fill many of the holes.

USC needed offensive linemen, a punter, and unfortunately, a kicker. They got the offensive linemen they wanted, but the prima donnas they recruited at other positions are going to have to wait to see the field, including McKnight.

One wonders if Pete Carroll (who I think is probably the best coach in college football) is going to have a Arkansas-like revolt on his hands by the end of the year.

I know this kid is supposedly “the next reggie bush”, but here’s the reality: four star running backs and five star running backs are extremely similar talent-wise. Look no further than Charles Scott vs. Keiland Williams last year. It’s hard for me to believe that Joe McKnight is THAT much better than the #2 running back last year, both of which are on USC’s roster for 2007. Anybody who says anything different is flat out lying.

So in response to JT Curtis’ comment about LSU being a hamburger and USC being a filet mignon, I have this to say: Joe will not get to eat the filet reserved for the top 2 USC runningbacks in the next 365 days, and may not ever get to eat it with the logjam of talent they have amassed at runningback.

Allright joeshowtime4, start practicing your kicking skills.

So if USC had loads of talent but can’t use it, how did LSU do you ask?

LSU’s recruiting class:

Last season’s weakness: running game, offensive line.
Holes that need to be filled: 3rd string QB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2OL, K, P, 1 DL, 3 DB.

How did we do?

1 QB, 3 WR, 3 TE, 2K, 4 DL, 8 DB.

Out of all of the players mentioned in the statistic above, only 2 are 3 star atheletes: the kickers. I’d say that’s a solid class. I’m not going to name names right now on who is going to be a star, or who to look out for, because at one point or another I think all of the guys LSU signed this year will be stars.

A full review of the SEC to come next week.

One week left for recruiting.

I hate the recruiting period between the national championship and signing day. I become so addicted to college football from mid-November to January, that it’s impossible for me to quit cold turkey and wait for august. Before I contradict myself and talk about it for an hour or so, here’s a little special something from the boys at southpark:

Alas, recruiting does give us something interesting to talk about. Will Les Miles land a five star recruit this year? Will coach O’s recruits qualify? Why is Nick Saban spending so much time in Louisiana? Will anyone be able to beat Florida in the forseeable future? How many of Fulmer’s recruitis will be in jail at the start of the season? Does the LSU recruiting strategy change with Gary Crowton at the helm?

All things considered, LSU is in good shape for the 2007 season. As far as recruiting goes, I figure there are two categories: holes left by graduation, and upgrades to be done. I feel like the offensive line will be better next year, and that was one of the only areas for improvement. That being said, here are the holes that Les needs to fill within the next week:

Wide Receiver: At first, I shit my pants thinking about Bowe and Davis leaving. I don’t think we’ll ever know how good Davis was because Bowe was too busy dropping passes. Here are the underclassmen that need to step up into those roles:

Jarred Mitchell
Chris Mitchell
Ricky Dixon

All of these receivers were highly ranked last year, and the Mitchells caught two passes each, but did not see significant playing time. Here are some 2007 recruits that will push these guys if they end up signing with LSU:

Toddrick Bajoie
DeAngelo Benton
Demetrius Byrd
Terrence Tolliver
Joe McKnight

Out of this field, I think that Byrd and Tolliver have a legitimate chance to move into a starting role (Byrd is only a 3 star, but he’s got the hight and speed and the recruiting services never rate Juco players that well). I also think that McKnight would make an immediate impact as a slot receiver, running back, quarterback, defensive back, kick returner, offensive coordinator, you name it.

Byrd, Benton, and Bajoie have already given solid verbal commitments to LSU. Tolliver and McKnight have yet to announce their choices. If I were these two, I would pick LSU on February 7th. They will have a chance to make an immediate impact on a top 5 team. USC is loaded with 5 star talent, and Florida is very crowded as well, and Tebow?

If I’m a receiver I’d be much more comfortable with Matt Flynn and Ryan Perrilloux.

Defensive End: I know that Chase and Willis are the only two that graduated this year, but I’m thinking next year. So far we have Kentravis Aubrey, but don’t think that one of the other DT’s/ DE’s from this year, or one of the TE recruits won’t be seeing time at DE within the next 3 years.

Defensive Backfield: Here’s who we’re losing:

Jonathan Zenon
Sammy Joseph
Daniel Francis
Jessie Daniels
LaRon Landry

Here’s who can step in to make an impact that has playing experience:
Chevis Jackson
Craig Steltz

Players that could step in for an immediate impact that haven’t seen significant playing time:

Jai Eugene
Shomari Clemons
Danny McCray
Jason Teague

Still, only having two seasoned vets on the defensive backfield is pretty scary. So here are some commits / recruits that could step in and play immediately:

Phelon Jones
Stephon Francois
Chad Jones

I don’t think McKnight wants to be a DB. I think he wants to be an RB. That being said, it’s a great year to be a DB recruit to commit to Les Miles. Most kids don’t get to see time for 2-3 years. These guys can be studs immediately.

All things considered, it’s the defensive backfield where LSU needs help the most, followed by the WR.

Here’s the wish list:

Chad Jones
Stephoin Francois
Terrence Tolliver
Joe McKnight

If we can pull in those four, we’re in the clear. If we can’t, LSU will still be good next year.

Florida Wins! Once again, my prediction didn’t work out. Florida, in the words of Les Miles, “played thier asses off” against ohio state and sent the Big 10 homers in the national media into reality. Here’s what we learned at the end of the season:

1) The SEC is by far the best conference in the country. The PAC 10 is second, followed by the Big East, the Big 10, and the Big 12.

2) Troy Smith is not the best player in college football, and Brady Quinn isn’t even in the top 10.  If I had to pick the best player in college football this year, I would have to choose between Run-DMC (Darren McFadden), Jamarcus Russell, Jeff Samardizdfakfjalkjfa, Dwayne Jarrett, and Pat White. I think in the end I would pick Run DMC.

3) ESPN is terrible we had 3 “games of the century” in 2006. Honestly, do you think we’re that stupid? First was USC-Texas. That was a fantastic game, but USC was not “like, OMG the best team evar!”. Next they had us believe that Ohio State – Texas was the “game of the century”. Yeah, a freshman quarterback is going to win the National Championship. They then admitted they were wrong, because Ohio State – Michigan was the “game of the century”. Omitted from this discussion was Miami-Florida state, which was only “game of the year” at the beginning of the year.

They have a contract with the Big 10, which is why they rank the midwest teams so highly, and it’s also why they hype these teams so much.

4) Notre Dame sucks. End of story.

5) Back to point #1, the Big East ain’t that bad.

6) Over-rated: head coaches, under-rated: coordinators. See David Cutcliffe.

7) We need more instant replay for officiating review. These guys can’t get it done on the field.

8) Tyrannical coaches that bully the press do well, which is why there needs to be rules to limit their bullying. Do you hear me Charlie Weiss?

9) There are too many bowls.

10) We need a playoff.

National Championship prediction.

I’ll keep this short since I’m on my break from work. This game is too close to say who’s going to win. I expect this game to be an offensive shootout. Let’s take a look behind the numbers. 

I expeect both teams to put up between 290 and 350 yards of total offense, and to turn the ball over twice.  Looking at games that both teams have played:

• Ohio State has averaged 169 yards passing and 153 yards rushing against teams with defenses similar to Florida’s.
• Florida has averaged 206 yards passing and 122 yards rushing against defenses similar to Ohio State’s.
• This puts them within 6 yards of each other for total offensive yardage.

Against top-notch defenses, both teams have 2 turnovers per game.  So then the difference is going to be the intangibles, which are average starting position and return yardage. Nearly impossible to measure.

The score: 37-34; pick which team you want on either side of that score. It’s really too close to call.

New Orleans Shootout: The High White Hat vs. The Bulge

vs.
Greetings! It’s been a while since our last update, and that’s because there hasn’t been much football to speak of. Before I get started with my predictions, I want to say that Charlie Weiss is a very good coach, and Brady Quinn is a phenomenal quarterback…….

……….the only thing is, Quinn wouldn’t start at LSU. I don’t want to re-hash everything that’s being said in the media, which is either how LSU is going to smack the shit out of Notre Dame, or how LSU will be caught off-gaurd, and Notre Dame is going to fight until the last whistle because Charlie Weiss is a good coach. Instead, I want to point out a few facts:

• The winner of this game is going to be the team that can score more points.
• Brady Quinn has had a monster year….but has only played 2 teams ranked in the top 50 pass defenses in the nation.
• LSU’s pass Defense is rated in the top 15, higher than anyone else Notre Dame has played.
• Darius Walker won’t be running the ball much, either.
• Notre Dame’s Defense is ranked around 50th.

Let’s look at how the two offenses have done against top ranked defenses, in rushing and passing respectively:

Notre Dame

Led by Brady Quinn, Notre Dame has a pretty stellar offense. I don’t think Darius Walker is too shabby as a running back, either. Here’s how their offense has performed this year.

Notre Dame has played two teams in the top 50 of passing defense. Know who they are? Ahh, Michigan and USC. Nope. Not even close. The two teams in the top 50 pass defense that Notre Dame has played are Stanford and Army. In both of those games, Quinn had a solid game, passing for just over 200 in both, and throwing 6 TD’s and 1 Interception. In both of those games, the opponent couldn’t score on Notre Dame’s defense (ranked in the middle of the pack: 50 for both pass and run defense), and in both of those games, Notre Dame was able to open up the passing attack with a solid running game. I don’t think they’ll be able to rush as well as they would like against the LSU front, but given Brady’s performance against top ranked defenses, I think he’ll do well enough, but the stat sheet won’t show it. I think he’ll put up around 180 yards, but definately not 200 or higher.

Notre Dame has faced 6 opponents in the top 50 in rush defense, which is probably the biggest reason why you haven’t heard Darius Walker’s name mentioned much this year. LSU opponents are averaging 95 yards a game, and I think that’s about how many yards Notre Dame will be able to rush the ball. Not bad, but not great either.

LSU

LSU has actually played some good teams this year, and they blow the fucking roof off when they play a poor opponent, and play reasonably well against upper echelon teams. The special teams errors and mistakes by Jamarcus Russell haven’t been seen in months, so I think we’re good there.

For all the Notre Dame fans out there, I hope he has a terrible game so that he comes back next year. It’s just that he won’t.

Jamarcus is a stud, there’s no question about that. It’s funny to think what he would do if he had Hawaii’s schedule, or if he played in the Big 10. That is neither here nor there, however, because he’s at LSU and that’s the way we like it. Notre Dame’s passing D is ranked at 50, which is not as good as the pass defense put up by Alabama, Auburn, or Arkansas. In those games, he averaged 253 yards a game, which sounds about right. I think he throws about 4 or 5 touchdowns in this contest if he stays in the whole game.

On the running side of the ball, LSU’s comittee has put up an average of 136 yards/game against teams with better running defenses such as: Florida, Mississippi State, Arizona, Arkansas, and Auburn. We all know that Miles likes to use the run to open up the pass, and I think we get an additional 2 touchdowns from our running backs.

Notre Dame is a very good football team. I think they’re about as good as Kentucky or possibly even Arkansas. Anything can happen. At the end of the day, I think Notre Dame just won’t be able to score as many points as LSU. The Bayou Bengals win this contest 44-17 as the Matt Flynn era begins.

Oh yeah, one more thing. I know Notre Dame is practicing at John Curtis highschool, where Joe McKnight plays, but it’s going to be hard for Notre Dame to recruit him when they get their ass kicked.