Payback time: LSU vs. Auburn preview

Sorry I haven’t written an update about Kentucky. I think Jana said it best during the preview when she said that the LSU receivers need to start catching the fucking ball. That’s why we lost to Kentucky. That and stupid penalties.

In other news…….

Les Miles reported today that Early Doucet is practicing at 100% and that we should be seeing him a lot during the Auburn game. This is good news, seeing as how he has been our best receiver the past 2 years, in my opinion. He’s not as big as Dwayne Bowe, or as fast as Craig Davis, but he catches everything in sight, is extremely agile, and deceptively quick. He’s a game changer. For those of you who haven’t noticed, our offense has been average since he left, and he will bring a spark to this Tiger team, opening up the passing and running lanes as a decoy, and is worth about 2 TD’s in this game, unless we blow the doors off of Auburn early, in which case Miles will save him to keep him healthy.

. …but that’s not likely to happen against Auburn, as they have a better defense than we will have faced all year. Without further audieu, your keys to the game:

Krista Says: Our defense is very, very good at defending the pass, and defending the run. We shut down Darren McFadden last week. We’re a lunchpail defense, and while we don’t allow many points or yards, we also don’t force many turnovers.

On special teams, our punting is very solid, and makes up for our defense’s lack of flair.

On offense, we’ve got to rock out with our cox out, because we can’t run the ball for shit. If we can’t run the ball on South Florida, it’s not like we’re going to do much better against Dorsey & Co.

Hilary Says: True, we haven’t faced a defense like Auburn’s, and it’s not like they’re schedule has been terrible, but we’ve got the advantage on defense. Check it out: they’ve got no running game. This is going to allow our defense to blitz the bejesus out of Cox, and our pass defense to shine. We lead the league in turnover margin, which should give our offense good field position.

On special teams, it looks like Chad Jones is going to be returning punts. But let’s be honest, it’s not like our return game or our punting game has been lighting it up this year. If Auburn can get 2 or 3 first downs on each possession without turning it over, we could be in trouble because we’ll have a much longer field to score than they will.

Offense baby. Offense. Y’all suck for criticizing my boy Matt Flynn after last week’s game. Sure, he made a few mistakes, but the receivers made many more. Early Doucet’s return should cure that. He’ll actually catch the ball this week, and should open up the passing lanes for the other receivers. I actually have a theory about Brandon Lafell — he seems to have more confidence with Early around and seems to catch the ball better. I hope I’m right about this. If not, we should see a little more of Terrence Tolliver who seems to be getting better every week. Ryan Perrilloux will probably pass the ball once or twice, but I believe the coaching staff is bringing him along slowly and allowing him to grow into the system. Sure, he tore it up against Middle Tennessee State, but c’mon folks, Middle Tennessee isn’t a top ranked SEC defense like Auburn or Florida. Hell, he even missed two wide open receivers against Tulane, costing our team 14 points.

We’re probably going to need to mix it up a little bit with the running backs. Hester’s good and reliable, but it’s not like those Auburn punks are good at forcing turnovers. Besides, he looked a little shook up after a TD in overtime last week. I think we’ll see more of Charles Scott and Keiland Williams this weekend. They will look more impressive than they have against other good defenses because Early Doucet will force Will Muschamp to game plan around him, allowing our speed rushers to gain more yardage.

Prediction: Well, after hearing from our two ladies on their respective teams, I think Auburn must play conservative, with short and precise passing, and playing a field position game in order for them to win. If they don’t, LSU will be able to control the tempo of the game and it could be over by halftime.

For LSU to win, we need to pressure Cox, and defend the passing game. They haven’t been able to run the ball all year, and I don’t anticipate this trend to change against our front 7.

In the end, I believe LSU will win this game, 21-14. Despite Early’s return, Auburn has a great defense, and LSU has gotten pounded in hard hitting games in the last 2 weeks against Florida and Kentucky. Our running backs and QB should be fresh, and Early will add some new legs to the receiving corps, but I expect our lines to be tired out and a little bruised from the past few weeks. That being said, if we fire on all cylinders, and Auburn comes out flat (entirely possible for a night game in TS), we could win this game 47-0. I say could because I honestly believe we win this game 21-14.

Around the league:

Ole Miss got robbed by Nick Saban and his referees last week. That call on the Ole Miss receiver running out of bounds was atrocious. That’s the second time that ‘Bama got a call in order to win the game. In a related story, does anybody notice that Nick Saban has the same record as Mike Shula this time last season?

There’s rumors of Tommy Tubberville leaving Auburn to go to Texas A&M. I don’t believe ‘em. Why would he leave Auburn, and why would A&M want another coach from Alabama?

Rutgers upset South Florida last night. It was a good game, but sloppy sloppy sloppy on defense. I really don’t think the Big East teams can hack it against the Pac 10 or the SEC, the two best conferences this year in my opinion. Jim Leavitt thinks he’s still got an outside chance at the BCS championship. That guy’s a fighter, but it ain’t gonna happen.

Boston College and Ohio State ranked higher than LSU, really? C’mon folks, they haven’t played anyone in the top 50. After Auburn we’ll have played 5 of our games against teams in the top 50.

The BCS picture has a long way to go before any definitive picture is made.

Looks like Callahan is going to get canned at Nebraska. What the fuck? Didn’t he restore Nebraska to glory last year by bringing them to the big 12 championship game? Another example of irrational acts by universities and boosters in the NCAA.

No updates on the USC scandal yet. I wonder what’s going on there.

Joe McKnight finally got in the game, and looked pretty solid averaging something like 7 yards a carry. The pro-McKnight case: He’s only a freshman, and USC’s entire offensive line is in shambles. The anti-McKnight case: All his carries have come against shitty teams. We won’t be able to make a definitive ruling on whether or not he’s the best HS prospect of all time until he graduates, so chill out people.

Mark “dirty” Sanchez will start in replace of Booty. Dirty Sanchez, Booty, Mustain, it’s just too easy with SC’s QB’s.

Boston College and Arizona State are idle this week. If LSU and Ohio State both win, we could be ranked #1 by the computers.

How many players are going to leave Notre Dame? Looks like Charlie Weiss is really screwing it up over there, taking a huge steaming shit on the program after Willingham was unfairly forced out.

Games to pay attention to and why:

Tennessee vs. Alabama: Watch the Bama meltdown if Fulmer wins – if he does, the SEC East becomes a very interesting race.

Arkansas vs. Ole Miss: The battle of the hotseat, although I think Nutt probably gets canned at the end of the season (perhaps unfair — got screwed by Mrs. Mustain and a news reporter), and Orgeron keeps his job at the end of the season no matter what. I’m kind of pulling for Ole Miss, even though I hate them when they play us.

Florida vs. Kentucky: Either team winning increases our SOS. I’d like to see Woodson do well, and Tebow cry. Go cats!

Michigan State vs. Ohio State: Tressell decides to play I-A ball finally.

Mississippi State vs. West Virginia: A win for croom increases our SOS, and wins him an extension as well. He is doing good things at Mississippi State.

Southern Cal vs. Notre Dame: Another loss for Charlie Weiss is a good day for us. It will be interesting to see how a decimated Southern Cal O line and a backup QB and third string / fourth string RB do against a terrible Notre Dame team. Honesetly, if I were to tell you that Mcknight and Sanchez were going to play against Notre Dame at the beginning of the season, you’d say….yeah, when it’s 50-0 with 2 minutes to go in the 4th quarter, right?

Michigan vs. Illinios: C’mon Carr — we’re rooting for you to keep the maize and blue hands off miles.

Penn State vs. Indiana: Just kidding, but why is this game on TV?

I’m out……

Week 2 Recap: Apology to Brandon Lafell

I owe an apology to Brandon Lafell. Not for anything I’ve written or said, but just for thinking that one of the Mitchell’s, Dixon, Byrd, or that Tolliver would take his spot as the #2 receiver. Lafell clearly stepped up his game yesterday, averaging almost 18 yards per catch against the #1 ranked defense in the NCAA over the past two years. I was mostly right on my assumptions:

1) Virginia Tech’s defense is over-rated: Judging Virginia Tech’s defense based on a schedule of comprised of unimpressive ACC offenses (except Clemson) and a couple of non conference all-girls high schools is like judging Hawaii’s offense with their schedule. It’s great to be flashy, but it only matters when it’s against good teams. That’s why Reggie Bush looks awesome in college, but Joe Addai is better in the pros — it’s the schedule. I don’t give a fuck if former date rapist Colt Brennan throws for a 1000 yards in a game if it comes against Louisiana Tech. I just don’t. Throw for 195 yards against Texas and I’ll listen.

2) LSU’s Defense dominated because of their inexperience of VA Tech’s offensive line: Sean Glennon didn’t do VaTech any favors, but he wasn’t nearly as bad as Mike Henig, and Brandon Ore is a really really good running back. They’ve got a young O-line, and LSU has the best front 7 in college.

3) Virginia Tech averaged 13.41 yards per drive. I predicted 15. If you take away Virginia Tech’s 1 good drive, they averaged 8 yards. The coaching and the execution sucked.

4) LSU won in a blowout because Matt Flynn made the right decisions and Brandon Lafell emerged as a solid #2 receiver. I am happy for Lafell. The fact that he is still able to compete with all of the talent that Les Miles has brought into the program means that he’s worked really hard on improving his game. I’m proud that he’s a tiger.

Other than that, I’m really impressed with the way that LSU’s staff prepared our tigers, and extremely impressed with Gary Crowton. It’s amazing to see the difference between he and Jimbo Fisher. I’m also really happy with the play of Ryan Perrilloux. He is a solid backup, and will make huge contributions to the program as time goes on.

In other news around the NCAA:

Michigan lost to Oregon. I was convinced that Michigan would fire Lloyd Carr at halftime and would hire Mike Bellotti. I was unimpressed that Bellotti kept Dixon in the game so long, I thought that move lacked class. But as Spurrier would say, “If you don’t want me to score on ‘ya, play defense”.

Oklahoma beat the shit out of Miami. The ACC not looking so great this year, but while you can judge the ACC on Virginia Tech who is a great team and lost to an awesome team this week, you can’t really judge the ACC on the performance of Miami — it would be like judging the SEC based on Alabama.

Nebraska barely beat Wake Forest. You gotta feel for Wake’s coach losing the way he has the last 2 weeks.

UCLA beat BYU. Look out for the Bruins, they are going to surprise some people by the end of the year.

Cal beat Colorado State. I think Cal is the #1 team in the Pac 10. USC has shown me nothing by scheduling Idaho, while Cal has throttled two good teams.

Florida killed Troy. In another move that lacked class, Herban Meyer kept Tebow in the entire game. Herban has proved that he is the #1 asshole in coaching, and is inevitably going to learn the hard way that you need to put in your backups. I can’t wait to see him cry like a bitch after we pummel Florida this year.

South Carolina beat Georgia. Yawn. Why was Georgia even ranked? Or Favored? Never underestimate the Ole ball coach.

Hawaii needed overtime to beat La Tech. If they go undefeated they shouldn’t go to the MNC game. All of Colt Brennan’s statistics are irrelevant because he plays on a team that doesn’t play anybody.

Penn State beat Notre Dame. The Claussen children suck at football. It was fun to see Jimmy get jacked up a few times. How’s your 4 national championship prediction working out now Jimmy? You’re the Ryan Leaf of football.

Auburn lost to USF. Auburn is a major disappointment this year. It hurts the entire SEC when one of our teams loses to a Big East team.

Washington beat Cinderella. Notre Dame should have never let go of Ty Willingham.

Alabama beat Vandy. That’s too bad, I was hoping Bobby Johnson would go 2-0 against Bama in the last 2 years. I was hoping Bama would win because that helps our SOS.

Colorado lost to Arizona State. After starting the game 14-0, the Buffs let Arizona score 33 unanswered points. Hawkins was terrible. Oh well.

Florida Wins! Once again, my prediction didn’t work out. Florida, in the words of Les Miles, “played thier asses off” against ohio state and sent the Big 10 homers in the national media into reality. Here’s what we learned at the end of the season:

1) The SEC is by far the best conference in the country. The PAC 10 is second, followed by the Big East, the Big 10, and the Big 12.

2) Troy Smith is not the best player in college football, and Brady Quinn isn’t even in the top 10.  If I had to pick the best player in college football this year, I would have to choose between Run-DMC (Darren McFadden), Jamarcus Russell, Jeff Samardizdfakfjalkjfa, Dwayne Jarrett, and Pat White. I think in the end I would pick Run DMC.

3) ESPN is terrible we had 3 “games of the century” in 2006. Honestly, do you think we’re that stupid? First was USC-Texas. That was a fantastic game, but USC was not “like, OMG the best team evar!”. Next they had us believe that Ohio State – Texas was the “game of the century”. Yeah, a freshman quarterback is going to win the National Championship. They then admitted they were wrong, because Ohio State – Michigan was the “game of the century”. Omitted from this discussion was Miami-Florida state, which was only “game of the year” at the beginning of the year.

They have a contract with the Big 10, which is why they rank the midwest teams so highly, and it’s also why they hype these teams so much.

4) Notre Dame sucks. End of story.

5) Back to point #1, the Big East ain’t that bad.

6) Over-rated: head coaches, under-rated: coordinators. See David Cutcliffe.

7) We need more instant replay for officiating review. These guys can’t get it done on the field.

Tyrannical coaches that bully the press do well, which is why there needs to be rules to limit their bullying. Do you hear me Charlie Weiss?

9) There are too many bowls.

10) We need a playoff.

Which College Football Conference is best?

 Stole this one from tigerdroppings today, too hungover to write. Great article on whose conference is best.

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I got tired of the age-old “my conference is better than your conference” arguments, and the Sagarin rankings seem absurd to me, so I decided to compare conference records in OOC games. I don’t look at individual teams, I don’t look at intraconference games, just the sum of the entire conference’s OOC games.

Here’s how they are broken up:

VS BCS OOC: Games played against BCS conference teams from OTHER conferences.

VS NON-BCS 1A: Games against non-BCS conference 1A teams (WAC, MWC, etc., except Notre Dame)

VS ND: Versus Notre Dame, ND is a special case that doesn’t fit neatly into either of the above categories – they’re not in a conference, but they’re a cut above the average Non-BCS 1A, so they only show up in games against BCS top 25. For the record, ACC 0-2, Big Ten 1-3, Pac 10 1-2 vs ND.

VS 1AA: self explanatory. A loss here is embarassing.

VS BCS Top 25: Record vs BCS top 25 as of this week.

Top25 VS Top25: How the top 25 (BCS) in the conference fared against top 25 from other conferences

#teams with BCS OOC win: How many teams in the conference had at least one win against an OOC BCS conference team? This seemed like a good indication of the DEPTH of the conference vis-a-vis other conferences.

VS VS VS VS TOP25 #Teams
BCS NON-BCS 1AA BCS VS W/BCS
OOC OOC TOP25 TOP25 OOCWIN
ACC 4-10 17-6 8-1 1-6 0-1 3
Big East 11-7 15-1 6-0 0-4 0-0 7
Big Ten 6-4 20-3 5-2 2-6 2-0 4
Big 12 3-8 20-6 10-1 0-3 0-2 3
Pac 10 6-4 9-3 5-0 5-7 3-2 5
SEC 9-6 24-1 8-0 3-5 1-1 8

You can slice and dice these numbers a lot of ways. Here’s the things that seem pretty obvious (and objective) to me, ranking the conferences from worst to best:

The ACC sucks. 4-10 against BCS OOC, 17-6 against non-BCS 1A, only 3 of 12 teams with an OOC win against a BCS conference team.

Ditto for the Big 12 – they are clearly sub-par, it’s a toss-up which is worse, ACC or Big 12.

Big East is suprisingly credible. They beat some weak teams from the Big 10 and ACC, but still, their supposedly inferior teams managed quite a few wins (7 of 8 had OOC wins against BCS conf teams). Numbers are slightly inflated by only playing 7 conference games, allowing for 5 OOC games per team. I bump them down below Big 10 primarily due to only 4 games vs non-conf top 25 (and no wins) and none of the top teams played a top 25 OOC team. I think the Big 10 is better at the top, although the Big East may well be better top to bottom. Hard to say that with a straight face, but the numbers don’t lie. The Big Ten has some dreadful teams at the bottom.

Big 10 has a good record OOC at the top, but it is blemished by two losses to 1AA teams and only 4 of 11 teams winning OOC against another BCS conference. Good, but not the best, particularly after the first 4 teams or so.

PAC 10: Good record OOC, the 9-3 record vs non-BCS 1A is a little bit of a concern, but that includes some pretty good teams like Boise State. 5 teams of 10 have OOC BCS conf wins, and they played by far the most OOC top 25 teams (12 vs 8 for the SEC and the Big 10, which both have more teams in conference than PAC 10 does). Even taking out USC they played a tough schedule and had pretty good results.

SEC: Good OOC record vs BCS, excellent record vs non-BCS, and 8 teams (of 12) posted wins against OOC BCS teams. I rate them higher than Big 10 because of the 8 vs 4 teams had OOC wins vs BCS conference teams, and slightly higher than PAC 10 because removing any one team from the SEC results has minimal effect on the overall record, vs removing USC from the PAC 10, which drops the numbers quite a bit, so SEC gets the nod in terms of depth.

Whew.

There’s the FACTs, and then my take on the facts. Feel free to take the facts and draw your own conclusions.